2022 Bubble Timeline

Because it’s so easy to forget… here’s a timeline as it happens. Who knows which of these events will prove important? just trying to make a note of the big ones.

March 2022

March 9th: Federal reserve stops quantitative easing. You can see the flattening of their balance sheet.

March 16th: Federal reserve raises rates to .25% responding to a CPI of 7.9%.

March 17th: In response to the Fed, home mortgage rates topped 4% for the first time since 2019.

March US Median Home Price: $411,451 which is +16.8% yoy

April 2022

April 15th: 30-year home mortgage rates hit 5% for the 1st time in over a decade.

April 30th: April was a rough month for stocks. The Nasdaq fell roughly 15%, its worst month since October 2008. The S&P 500 erased 8.8 percent in April, its worst month since March 2020.

April US Median Home Price: $424,451 which is +15.4% yoy

May 2022

May 4th: Federal Reserve raises rates a half-point, to combat inflation. Fed Funds Rate to target 0.75% and shares plan to start QT in the first week of June.

May 12th: TerraUSD (UST) lost its peg to the U.S. dollar, wiping out Luna which lost almost 99% of its value. The resulting crypto crash wiped $1T out of the US economy.

May 12th: Carvana laid off 2500 employees. The auto market is often 6 months ahead of the housing market.

May US Median Home Price: $430,980 which is +15% yoy

June 2022

June 10th: With the Federal Reserve starting to runoff its MBS balance this week, for a hot second, MBS went “no-bid” and prompted this article that gave everyone goosebumps (Look for the June 10th post).

June 15th: JPow increased the Fed funds rate by 0.75% at the monthly meeting, to a target range of 1.5%-1.75%. He also told buyers, essentially, to wait for a ‘reset’ in the housing market. Quantitative tightening (QT) begins.

Lots of layoffs this month – Compass and Redfin laid off close to 500 employees each, JPMorgan laid off hundreds in the mortgage division. Coinbase laid off 1,100 people. A mortgage company called FGMC (First Guaranty Mortgage Corp) laid off 500 and essentially shut down operations.

June US Median Home Price: $427,844 which is +10.9% yoy

July 2022

July 1st: Major crypto broker Voyager Digital suspends all trading, deposits and withdrawals, wiping out scores of customers. This came after crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) had defaulted on a loan from Voyager worth more than $670 million.

July 6th: Fed’s QT starts to show up in the balance sheet, which fell by $22 billion from the prior week, and by $74 billion from the peak in April.

July 7th: Boris Johnson agrees to step down as prime minister of the UK, after most of his cabinet resigns.

July 8th: Shinzo Abe, former Japanese Prime Minister, is assassinated, shocking the world.

July 19th: I tested positive for covid! After 2.5 years of successful evasion.

July 27th: JPow increased the Fed funds rate by 0.75% for the fourth time this year, to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%.

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